2024 Kentucky Derby: Best bets, predictions, odds, picks to win, long shots

Best 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets, Predictions: Picks to Win

#17 Fierceness — 3/2

Zerillo: I've got to take #17 Fierceness as my top win contender. I think he wins this race 50% of the time, so I'd be happy to bet him to win at 3-2 or better. That would be a 10% edge at the 40% implied probability we get at 3-2 odds relative to an even money projection.

I like Fierceness in terms of the odds getting anything better than even money, but I also like the #17 just in terms of the speed figures and his form leading up to this race. He has the two best speed figures coming into this race — a 110 from his most recent prep in the Florida Derby and a 105 last November in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Only one other horse in this race has run a speed figure above 100. If Fierceness runs his best race, I don't think any of these horses can catch him.

The field is also going to need him to regress if they want to have a chance, but I think there's a chance that Fierceness is actually improving and is going to run a career-best race on Saturday. By all accounts, all of his training leading up to the race at Churchill Downs this week looks in career-best form. This is also the third start of his form cycle, which is typically the best speed score that you get out of a horse.

He lost two back in the Holy Bull is his first start off the bench and didn't have much left in the tank in the stretch, but he looked great in the Florida Derby against a weaker field. He's going to be getting more pace pressure this weekend, but I do think he's going to get to the position he needs with a good draw from the outside, and he's going to turn home in the stretch and pull away from this field to win by open lengths.

So if Fierceness runs his best race, I think he's too good for the rest of this field. I don't even think his top contender or his top rival is in here. He'll end up meeting Muth in the Preakness if he wins on Saturday. So #17 Fierceness at 3-2 or better is my top win contender and my favorite way to bet Saturday's race.

#8 Just A Touch — 10/1

Conti: Look, I agree with everything that Sean said about Fierceness. I think he is the most likely winner of this race. But it's the Derby. Nobody likes betting the favorite in the Derby. Come on, Zerillo. So I'm going a little bit further to the inside to #8 Just A Touch, at 10-1.

Just A Touch never ran at two. His sire, Justify, also never ran at two. He has three starts coming into this weekend: a win and two seconds. That second-place finish in the Bluegrass, he looked really good coming for home; the #2 in this race, Sierra Leone, ended up going by him late, but the jockey of Just A Touch, Florent Geroux, when he got off, said that he thought that Just A Touch had another gear. And with that being only the third start of his career, if he can continue to move forward with his stalking running style, I think he has a big chance in this race at 10-1.

#15 Domestic Product — 30/1

Conti: The other best bet that I'll give you, we're going to go a little bit further down the board, just to the inside of Fierceness, to #15 Domestic Product. He's 30-1 on the morning line.

When I did my initial handicapping of the race, Domestic Product was going to be my top choice. I couldn't end up there for a number of reasons, but he's a horse that I'm not going to let beat me. And at 30-1, he's worth putting a few dollars across the board on just to recoup if you need to. He was able to close into relatively slow paces in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Holy Bull. The Tampa Bay Derby closed into a slow pace; he had to split horses, and he gets a neck down at the wire to win that race. Then — and granted, it was Fierceness's first off the layoff — he finished in front of Fierceness at two back in the Holy Bull. So clearly, the horse has some serious talent.

And look, the last piece of this: you give me Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, arguably two of, if not the two best in the game at what they do, in addition to the owner, Klaravich Stables, at 30-1? You're not going to see this on any other day than Derby Day. I'm willing to take my chances.

Best 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets: Long Shots

#15 Domestic Product — 30/1

Zerillo (Long Shot Bet on Domestic Product): I am in complete agreement with Mike on the #15, Domestic Product. He is my top long shot selection in this race. Like Mike, I even considered picking him on top to win, though I ultimately went with Fierceness, and Just A Touch, who Mike also mentioned, is my other top win selection in this race.

I don't think Domestic Product ultimately wins, but I do think he runs a career-best race. He doesn't necessarily fit the speed figures. He doesn't necessarily fit on pedigree. But watching his races, he's always closing hard, as Mike said, into slow paces, doing more, moving up more than the rest of the field behind him. And I think he's sitting on a career-best race on Saturday considering how he's looked in training, giving Sierra Leone, his stablemate, all that he could handle throughout this week leading up to the race at Churchill Downs.

#19 Resilience — 20/1

Zerillo: I think Domestic Product is sitting on a career-best race on Saturday, and I also think the #19, Resilience, is sitting on a career-best race on Saturday. He's currently 20-1 on the morning line. I do think he's going to outrun those odds under trainer Bill Mott, who had him ready for the Wood Memorial in his last race, where he ran a career-best after adding blinkers.

He's going to be a little bit closer to the pace in the Derby than I might have expected earlier in his career, but the Wood Memorial has not had a ton of success producing Derby results. That said, I do think Resilience is one of the better horses to come out of there in a bit.

So the #15, Domestic Product, and the #19, Resilience, are my two favorite long shot selections beneath the #17, Fierceness, and I'm also going to use some #8 Just A Touch as a potential win contender as well.

#6 Just Steel — 20/1

Conti: I gave you a 10-1 on top. I gave you a 30-1. But if we're stretching beyond those horses I believe have a real, true shot at winning this, I'm going towards the inside to #6 Just Steel, another horse by Justify, one of the most experienced horses in the field. And you could make arguments on both sides about experience at this young age, this early in his 3-year-old season.

He's got 11 starts under his belt, and as Sean pointed out on our podcast, two of them happened to be at Churchill Downs. He's got one win and a third-place finish. He way out-ran his odds last time out in the Arkansas Derby and ran second to Mucho Mouth. If you look at the Preakness futures, Mucho Mouth is the early favorite for the Preakness. If Mucho Mouth was in here, I think he would probably definitely be the second choice, to Fierceness, and might have even been a near favorite. And Just Steel ran a really good second to Mucho Mouth in that Arkansas Derby. So I'm going to use him as my long shot.

2024 Kentucky Derby Odds

1. Dornoch 20-1

Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez

2. Sierra Leone 3-1

Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffallione

3. Mystik Dan 20-1

Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

4. Catching Freedom 8-1

Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat

5. Catalytic 30-1

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

6. Just Steel 20-1

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen

7. Honor Marie 20-1

Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis

8. Just a Touch 10-1

Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux

9. Encino 20-1

Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Axel Concepcion
Note: Encino has scratched, to be replaced by Epic Ride

10. T O Password 30-1

Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura

11. Forever Young 10-1

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

12. Track Phantom 20-1

Trainer: Steve Amsussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario

13. West Saratoga 50-1

Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Jockey: Jesus Castanon

14. Endlessly 30-1

Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

15. Domestic Product 30-1

Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

16. Grand Mo the First 50-1

Trainer: Victor Barboza Jr.
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo

17. Fierceness 5-2

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

18. Stronghold 20-1

Trainer: Phil D'Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu

19. Resilience 20-1

Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

20. Society Man 50-1

Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Frankie Dettori

Epic Ride (see above) and Mugatu are the alternates in case a competitor scratches.